Like with weather forecasts, there is always a chance of error in these predictions. Fortunately for us, we know what that chance is. So, expect roughly one team in five to win who have a 20% chance, one team in ten with a 10%, one team in three with a 33% chance, etc...
Mar 10, 2012
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
199 |
Mississippi Valley State |
62 |
25.5 |
|
182 |
Western Kentucky |
68 |
74.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
26 |
Brigham Young |
89 |
50.5 |
|
41 |
Iona |
88 |
49.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
68 |
Lamar |
64 |
48.9 |
|
76 |
Vermont |
65 |
51.1 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
73 |
California |
56 |
42.5 |
|
30 |
South Florida |
58 |
57.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
1 |
Kentucky |
79 |
99.2 |
|
182 |
Western Kentucky |
55 |
0.8 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
28 |
Iowa State |
68 |
44.5 |
|
29 |
Connecticut |
69 |
55.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
4 |
Wichita State |
69 |
46 |
|
23 |
Virginia Commonwealth |
70 |
54 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
15 |
Indiana |
80 |
61.3 |
|
48 |
New Mexico State |
76 |
38.7 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
38 |
UNLV |
74 |
69.5 |
|
116 |
Colorado |
67 |
30.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
25 |
Baylor |
77 |
69.9 |
|
117 |
South Dakota State |
70 |
30.1 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
43 |
Notre Dame |
60 |
48.8 |
|
66 |
Xavier |
61 |
51.2 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
31 |
Duke |
85 |
79.3 |
|
114 |
Lehigh |
75 |
20.7 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
5 |
Michigan State |
88 |
94.9 |
|
177 |
LIU-Brooklyn |
65 |
5.1 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
3 |
Memphis |
75 |
67.7 |
|
19 |
Saint Louis |
69 |
32.3 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
9 |
New Mexico |
67 |
62.8 |
|
13 |
Long Beach State |
63 |
37.2 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
10 |
Louisville |
75 |
83.4 |
|
96 |
Davidson |
63 |
16.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
40 |
Murray State |
74 |
84.7 |
|
77 |
Colorado State |
63 |
15.3 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
14 |
Marquette |
91 |
68.4 |
|
41 |
Iona |
84 |
31.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
27 |
Florida |
61 |
55 |
|
44 |
Virginia |
59 |
45 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
8 |
Missouri |
84 |
94.5 |
|
174 |
Norfolk State |
63 |
5.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
6 |
Syracuse |
79 |
96 |
|
150 |
NC-Asheville |
59 |
4 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
18 |
Kansas State |
71 |
46.8 |
|
53 |
Southern Miss |
72 |
53.2 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
16 |
Vanderbilt |
65 |
72.4 |
|
47 |
Harvard |
58 |
27.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
7 |
Wisconsin |
59 |
60.5 |
|
75 |
Montana |
56 |
39.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
39 |
Cincinnati |
64 |
37.9 |
|
32 |
Texas |
68 |
62.1 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
35 |
Florida State |
71 |
68.4 |
|
52 |
St. Bonaventure |
65 |
31.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
59 |
Gonzaga |
65 |
40.2 |
|
42 |
West Virginia |
69 |
59.8 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
2 |
Ohio State |
77 |
92.8 |
|
128 |
Loyola-Maryland |
60 |
7.2 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
17 |
North Carolina |
81 |
80.5 |
|
68 |
Lamar |
71 |
19.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
24 |
Creighton |
68 |
57.4 |
|
33 |
Alabama |
66 |
42.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
34 |
Temple |
79 |
81 |
|
73 |
California |
71 |
19 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
20 |
Michigan |
68 |
54.4 |
|
60 |
Ohio |
66 |
45.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
63 |
San Diego State |
71 |
70.4 |
|
49 |
North Carolina State |
65 |
29.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
12 |
Georgetown |
79 |
84.2 |
|
37 |
Belmont |
68 |
15.8 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
36 |
St. Mary's |
82 |
58.9 |
|
22 |
Purdue |
79 |
41.1 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
11 |
Kansas |
77 |
89.5 |
|
87 |
Detroit |
63 |
10.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
1 |
Kentucky |
70 |
74.2 |
|
29 |
Connecticut |
64 |
25.8 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
23 |
Virginia Commonwealth |
71 |
43.1 |
|
15 |
Indiana |
73 |
56.9 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
38 |
UNLV |
74 |
52.4 |
|
25 |
Baylor |
73 |
47.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
66 |
Xavier |
70 |
40.2 |
|
31 |
Duke |
73 |
59.8 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
5 |
Michigan State |
73 |
67.2 |
|
3 |
Memphis |
67 |
32.8 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
9 |
New Mexico |
61 |
48.9 |
|
10 |
Louisville |
62 |
51.1 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
40 |
Murray State |
72 |
40.9 |
|
14 |
Marquette |
75 |
59.1 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
44 |
Virginia |
60 |
23.4 |
|
8 |
Missouri |
69 |
76.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
6 |
Syracuse |
73 |
75.9 |
|
53 |
Southern Miss |
64 |
24.1 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
16 |
Vanderbilt |
61 |
57 |
|
7 |
Wisconsin |
59 |
43 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
32 |
Texas |
71 |
47.7 |
|
35 |
Florida State |
72 |
52.3 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
42 |
West Virginia |
66 |
26.2 |
|
2 |
Ohio State |
74 |
73.8 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
17 |
North Carolina |
77 |
64.7 |
|
24 |
Creighton |
72 |
35.3 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
34 |
Temple |
75 |
47.1 |
|
60 |
Ohio |
76 |
52.9 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
63 |
San Diego State |
60 |
46.6 |
|
12 |
Georgetown |
61 |
53.4 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
36 |
St. Mary's |
75 |
42.2 |
|
11 |
Kansas |
77 |
57.8 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
1 |
Kentucky |
73 |
86.1 |
|
23 |
Virginia Commonwealth |
61 |
13.9 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
38 |
UNLV |
71 |
47.8 |
|
31 |
Duke |
72 |
52.2 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
5 |
Michigan State |
63 |
53.4 |
|
10 |
Louisville |
62 |
46.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
40 |
Murray State |
70 |
23.2 |
|
8 |
Missouri |
80 |
76.8 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
6 |
Syracuse |
65 |
41.3 |
|
16 |
Vanderbilt |
67 |
58.7 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
35 |
Florida State |
65 |
26.5 |
|
2 |
Ohio State |
72 |
73.5 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
17 |
North Carolina |
74 |
68.9 |
|
60 |
Ohio |
68 |
31.1 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
63 |
San Diego State |
75 |
74 |
|
36 |
St. Mary's |
65 |
26 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
23 |
Virginia Commonwealth |
70 |
52.6 |
|
31 |
Duke |
69 |
47.4 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
10 |
Louisville |
68 |
35 |
|
8 |
Missouri |
73 |
65 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
16 |
Vanderbilt |
69 |
44.4 |
|
2 |
Ohio State |
71 |
55.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
17 |
North Carolina |
69 |
42.8 |
|
63 |
San Diego State |
71 |
57.2 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
16 |
Vanderbilt |
70 |
50.4 |
|
17 |
North Carolina |
69 |
49.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
23 |
Virginia Commonwealth |
70 |
33.4 |
|
8 |
Missouri |
75 |
66.6 |
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Score
|
% Chance
|
|
16 |
Vanderbilt |
75 |
35.1 |
|
8 |
Missouri |
80 |
64.9 |
|